Comments on "Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?"

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Author(s) Knutti, Reto, Plattner, Gian-Kasper
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
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Title Comments on "Why Hasn't Earth Warmed as Much as Expected?"
Author(s) Knutti, Reto
Plattner, Gian-Kasper
Journal or Series Title Journal of Climate
Volume Number 25
Issue Number 6
Start Page 2192
End Page 2199
ISSN 0894-8755
1520-0442
Publisher American Meteorological Society
Publication Place Boston, MA
Publication Date 2012-03
Abstract In a recent paper, Schwartz et al. suggest that 1) over the last century the earth has warmed less than expected, and they discuss several factors that could explain the discrepancy, including climate sensitivity estimates and aerosol forcing. Schwartz et al. then continue to 2) estimate the allowed carbon emissions for stabilization of global temperature, and find that given the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity even the sign of these allowed carbon emissions is unknown, implying that past emissions may already have committed the earth to 2 degrees C warming for a best-estimate value of climate sensitivity of 3 K. Both of these conclusions in the Schwartz et al. study are revisited herein, and it is shown that 1) in contrast to Schwartz et al., current assessments of climate sensitivity, radiative forcing, and thermal disequilibrium do not support the claim of a discrepancy between expected and observed warming; and 2) the allowed emissions estimated by Schwartz et al. are in conflict with results from a hierarchy of climate carbon cycle models and are strongly underestimated due to erroneous assumptions about the behavior of the carbon cycle and a confusion of the relevant time scales.
DOI 10.1175/2011JCLI4038.1
Additional Notes Received 27 August 2010, Accepted 5 July 2011
Document Type Journal Item
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
03777
Organisational Unit(s)
NEBIS System Number 000490902
Source Database ID WOS-000301620300024
FORM-1350567850
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@article{Kntt2012,
  author = "Knutti, Reto and Plattner, Gian-Kasper",
  title = "{C}omments on "{W}hy {H}asn't {E}arth {W}armed as {M}uch as {E}xpected?"",
  journal = "Journal of Climate",
  year = 2012,
  volume = "25",
  number = "6",
  pages = "2192--2199",
  month = mar,
}


E-Citations record created: Tue, 10 Apr 2012, 14:23:44 CET