# Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation

Author(s) Knutti, Reto, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Solomon, S., Plattner, G.-K., Ciais, P., Raupach, M.R.
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
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## Detailed Information

Title Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation
Author(s) Knutti, Reto
Friedlingstein, Pierre
Solomon, S.
Plattner, G.-K.
Ciais, P.
Raupach, M.R.
Journal or Series Title Nature climate change
Volume Number 1
Issue Number 9
Start Page 457
End Page 461
ISSN 1758-678X
1758-6798
Publisher Nature Publ. Group
Publication Place London
Publication Date 2011-12
Keyword(s) Atmospheric science
Mitigation
Policy
Abstract Long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide1, 2, 3, 4. Previous studies have estimated that humankind has already emitted about 50% of the total amount allowed if warming, relative to pre-industrial, is to stay below 2 °C (refs 1, 2). Carbon dioxide emissions will thus need to decrease substantially in the future if this target is to be met. Here we show how links between near-term decisions, long-term behaviour and climate sensitivity uncertainties constrain options for emissions mitigation. Using a model of intermediate complexity5, 6, we explore the implications of non-zero long-term global emissions, combined with various near-term mitigation rates or delays in action. For a median climate sensitivity, a long-term 90% emission reduction relative to the present-day level is incompatible with a 2 °C target within the coming millennium. Zero or negative emissions can be compatible with the target if medium to high emission-reduction rates begin within the next two decades. For a high climate sensitivity, however, even negative emissions would require a global mitigation rate at least as great as the highest rate considered feasible by economic models7, 8 to be implemented within the coming decade. Only a low climate sensitivity would allow for a longer delay in mitigation action and a more conservative mitigation rate, and would still require at least 90% phase-out of emissions thereafter.
DOI 10.1038/nclimate1302
Additional Notes Received 20 May 2011, Accepted 31 October 2011, Published online 20 November 2011
Document Type Article
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
03777
Organisational Unit(s)
NEBIS System Number 006397317
Source Database ID FORM-1324024626
WOS-000298740300017
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@article{Kntt2011,
author = "Knutti, Reto and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Solomon, S. and Plattner, G.-K. and Ciais, P. and Raupach, M.R.",
title = "{L}ong-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation",
journal = "Nature climate change",
year = 2011,
volume = "1",
number = "9",
pages = "457--461",
month = dec,
}


E-Citations record created: Fri, 16 Dec 2011, 08:38:42 CET