Posterior analysis of random taste coefficients in air travel choice modelling
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Author
Date
2006-07Type
- Working Paper
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Researchers are increasingly making use of random coefficients structures, such as Mixed Logit, in the analysis of air travel choice behaviour. These models have the advantage of being able to retrieve random variations in sensitivities across travellers, leading to very significant gains in modelling accuracy. However, an important issue arises in the computation of willingness to pay indicators, such as the valuation of travel time savings (VTTS), on the basis of randomly distributed coefficients. Indeed, with the standard approach of using simulation of the ratios across random draws, major problems can be caused by outliers, leading to biased trade-offs, which in turn lead to major issues in policy analyses. In this paper, we explore a different approach, making use of individual-specific draws from the random distributions, conditioned on the observed sequence of choices for each respondent. An analysis making use of Stated Preference data for airport and airline choice confirms the advantages of the approach using conditional draws, producing much more realistic distributional patterns for a range of willingness to pay indicators, including but not limited to the VTTS. Finally, the analysis also reveals important differences between the trade-offs obtained with the MNL and MMNL models. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-005240043Publication status
publishedJournal / series
Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungVolume
Publisher
ETH, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, IVT, Institut für Verkehrsplanung und TransportsystemeSubject
AIR TRAFFIC + AVIATION (TRANSPORTATION AND TRAFFIC); TRANSPORT STATISTICS + TRAFFIC CENSUS (TRANSPORTATION AND TRAFFIC); VERKEHRSSTATISTIK + VERKEHRSZÄHLUNG (VERKEHR UND TRANSPORT); LUFTVERKEHR (VERKEHR UND TRANSPORT)Organisational unit
02610 - Inst. f. Verkehrspl. u. Transportsyst. / Inst. Transport Planning and Systems03521 - Axhausen, Kay W. (emeritus) / Axhausen, Kay W. (emeritus)
02226 - NSL - Netzwerk Stadt und Landschaft / NSL - Network City and Landscape
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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