Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

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Author(s) Vuuren, D. P. van, Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Joos, F., Strassmann, K. M., Smith, S. J., Wigley, T. M.L., Raper, S. C.B., Riahi, K., Chesnaye, F. de la, Elzen, M. G.J. den, Fujino, J., Jiang, K., Nakicenovic, N., Paltsev, S., Reilly, J. M.
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
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Title Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios
Author(s) Vuuren, D. P. van
Meinshausen, M.
Plattner, G.-K.
Joos, F.
Strassmann, K. M.
Smith, S. J.
Wigley, T. M.L.
Raper, S. C.B.
Riahi, K.
Chesnaye, F. de la
Elzen, M. G.J. den
Fujino, J.
Jiang, K.
Nakicenovic, N.
Paltsev, S.
Reilly, J. M.
Journal or Series Title Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS
Volume Number 105
Issue Number 40
Start Page 15258
End Page 15262
ISSN 0027-8424
1091-6490
Publisher National Academy of Sciences
Publication Place Washington, DC
Publication Date 2008-00-00
Keyword(s) climate
climate policy
stabilization
integrated assessment
scenario
Abstract Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigation scenarios, based on a wide range of modeling approaches and socioeconomic assumptions, now allow the assessment of possible impacts of climate policies on projected warming ranges. This article assesses the atmospheric CO2 concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature increase for these new scenarios using two reduced-complexity climate models. These scenarios result in temperature increase of 0.5–4.4°C over 1990 levels or 0.3–3.4°C less than the no-policy cases. The range results from differences in the assumed stringency of climate policy and uncertainty in our understanding of the climate system. Notably, an average minimum warming of ≈1.4°C (with a full range of 0.5–2.8°C) remains for even the most stringent stabilization scenarios analyzed here. This value is substantially above previously estimated committed warming based on climate system inertia alone. The results show that, although ambitious mitigation efforts can significantly reduce global warming, adaptation measures will be needed in addition to mitigation to reduce the impact of the residual warming.
DOI 10.1073/pnas.0711129105
Additional Notes Received for review 23 November 2007, Published online 6 October 2008
Document Type Article
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
Organisational Unit(s)
NEBIS System Number 001003347
Source Database ID PP-43373
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@article{Vrn2008,
  author = "Vuuren, D. P. van and Meinshausen, M. and Plattner, G.-K. and Joos, F. and Strassmann, K. M. and Smith, S. J. and Wigley, T. M.L. and Raper, S. C.B. and Riahi, K. and Chesnaye, F. de la and Elzen, M. G.J. den and Fujino, J. and Jiang, K. and Nakicenovic, N. and Paltsev, S. and Reilly, J. M.",
  title = "{T}emperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios",
  journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS",
  year = 2008,
  volume = "105",
  number = "40",
  pages = "15258--15262",
}


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