Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change

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Author(s) Cheung, William W.L., Jones, Miranda C., Reygondeau, Gabriel, Stock, Charles A., Lam, Vicky W.Y., Frölicher, Thomas L.
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
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Title Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change
Author(s) Cheung, William W.L.
Jones, Miranda C.
Reygondeau, Gabriel
Stock, Charles A.
Lam, Vicky W.Y.
Frölicher, Thomas L.
Journal or Series Title Ecological Modelling
Volume Number 325
Start Page 57
End Page 66
ISSN 0304-3800
1872-7026
Publisher Elsevier
Publication Place Amsterdam
Publication Date 2016-04
Keyword(s) Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model
Climate change
Uncertainty
Habitat suitability
MAXENT
AquaMaps
Abstract The global ocean is projected to be warmer, less oxygenated and more acidic in the 21st century relativeto the present day, resulting in changes in the biogeography and productivity of marine organisms andecosystems. Previous studies using a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) projected increasesin potential catch in high latitude regions and decreases in tropical regions over the next few decades.A major structural uncertainty of the projected redistribution of species and fisheries catches can beattributed to the habitat suitability algorithms used. Here, we compare the DBEM projections of poten-tial catches of 500 species of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates from 1971 to 2060 using threeversions of DBEM that differ by the algorithm used to predict relative habitat suitability: DBEM-Basic,DBEM-Maxent and DBEM-Aquamaps. All the DBEM models have similar skill in predicting the occur-rence of exploited species and distribution of observed fisheries production. Globally, the models projecta decrease in catch potential of 3% to 13% by 2050 under a high emissions scenario (Representative Con-centration Pathway 8.5). For the majority of the modelled species, projections by DBEM-Maxent are lesssensitive to changes in ocean properties than those by DBEM-Aquamaps. The mean magnitude of pro-jected changes relative to differences between projections differ between regions, being highest (>1 timesthe standard deviation) in the tropical regions and Arctic Ocean and lowest in three of the main EasternBoundary Upwelling regions, the eastern Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These results suggestthat the qualitative patterns of changes in catch potential reported in previous studies are not affectedby the structural uncertainty of DBEM, particularly in areas where catch potential was projected to bemost sensitive to climate change. However, when making projections of fish stocks and their potentialcatches using DBEM in the future, multiple versions of DBEM should be used to quantify the uncertaintyassociated with structural uncertainty of the models. Overall, this study contributes to improving pro-jection of future changes in living marine resources by exploring one aspect of the cascade of uncertaintyassociated with such projections.
DOI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.018
Additional Notes Published online 5 February 2016
Document Type Article
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
Organisational Unit(s)
NEBIS System Number 000023941
Source Database ID SCOPUS-84957597660
WOS-000371944400006
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@article{Chng2016,
  author = "Cheung, William W.L. and Jones, Miranda C. and Reygondeau, Gabriel and Stock, Charles A. and Lam, Vicky W.Y. and Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L.",
  title = "{S}tructural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change",
  journal = "Ecological Modelling",
  year = 2016,
  volume = "325",
  pages = "57--66",
  month = apr,
}


E-Citations record created: Tue, 23 Feb 2016, 09:34:48 CET