A backcasting approach for matching regional ecosystem services supply and demand
Open access
Date
2016-01Type
- Journal Article
Abstract
Ecosystem services (ES) modeling studies typically use a forecasting approach to predict scenarios of future ES provision. Usually, these forecasts do not inform on how specific policy alternatives will influence future ES supply and whether this supply can match ES demand – important information for policy-makers in practice. Addressing these gaps, we present a multi-method backcasting approach that links normative visions with explorative land-use and ES modeling to infer land-use policy strategies for matching regional ES supply and demand. Applied to a case study, the approach develops and evaluates a variety of ES transition pathways and identifies types, combinations and timings of policy interventions that increase ES benefits. By making explicit ES sensitivity towards regional policy strategies and global boundary conditions over time, the approach allows to address key uncertainties involved in ES modeling studies. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000107471Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Environmental Modelling & SoftwareVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
ElsevierSubject
Backcasting; Ecosystem services; Normative vision; Social-ecological modeling; Policy strategies; Transition pathwaysOrganisational unit
03823 - Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne / Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
02226 - NSL - Netzwerk Stadt und Landschaft / NSL - Network City and Landscape
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
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