Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

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Author(s) Sitch, Stephen, Friedlingstein, P., Gruber, Nicolas, Jones, S.D., Murray-Tortarolo, G., Ahlström, A., Doney, S.C., Graven, H., Heinze, C., Huntingford, C., Levis, S., Levy, P.E., Lomas, M., Poulter, B., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Arneth, A., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Canadell, J.G., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Ellis, R., Gloor, M., Peylin, P., Piao, S.L., Le Quéré, C., Smith, B., Zhu, Z., Myneni, R.
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
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Title Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
Author(s) Sitch, Stephen
Friedlingstein, P.
Gruber, Nicolas
Jones, S.D.
Murray-Tortarolo, G.
Ahlström, A.
Doney, S.C.
Graven, H.
Heinze, C.
Huntingford, C.
Levis, S.
Levy, P.E.
Lomas, M.
Poulter, B.
Viovy, N.
Zaehle, S.
Zeng, N.
Arneth, A.
Bonan, G.
Bopp, L.
Canadell, J.G.
Chevallier, F.
Ciais, P.
Ellis, R.
Gloor, M.
Peylin, P.
Piao, S.L.
Le Quéré, C.
Smith, B.
Zhu, Z.
Myneni, R.
Journal or Series Title Biogeosciences
Volume Number 12
Issue Number 3
Start Page 653
End Page 679
ISSN 1726-4170
1726-4189
Publisher Copernicus
Publication Place Göttingen
Publication Date 2015-02
Abstract The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of g'2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yrg'1 with a small significant trend of g'0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yrg'2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of g'2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yrg'1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (g'0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yrg'2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of g'0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yrg'2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yrg'2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yrg'2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (g'0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yrg'2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counter\-act the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.
DOI 10.5194/bg-12-653-2015
Document Type Article
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
00628
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Source Database ID SCOPUS-84922330924
WOS-000349793100002
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@article{Stch2015,
  author = "Sitch, Stephen and Friedlingstein, P. and Gruber, Nicolas and Jones, S.D. and Murray-Tortarolo, G. and Ahlstr{\"{o}}m, A. and Doney, S.C. and Graven, H. and Heinze, C. and Huntingford, C. and Levis, S. and Levy, P.E. and Lomas, M. and Poulter, B. and Viovy, N. and Zaehle, S. and Zeng, N. and Arneth, A. and Bonan, G. and Bopp, L. and Canadell, J.G. and Chevallier, F. and Ciais, P. and Ellis, R. and Gloor, M. and Peylin, P. and Piao, S.L. and Le Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}, C. and Smith, B. and Zhu, Z. and Myneni, R.",
  title = "{R}ecent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide",
  journal = "Biogeosciences",
  year = 2015,
  volume = "12",
  number = "3",
  pages = "653--679",
  month = feb,
}


E-Citations record created: Tue, 17 Feb 2015, 08:57:47 CET