Ecosystem Responses of the Subtropical Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii, to Climate Change

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Author(s) Tanaka, Katsumasa, Guidry, Michael W., Gruber, Nicolas
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
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Title Ecosystem Responses of the Subtropical Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii, to Climate Change
Subtitle A Nitrogen Cycle Modeling Approach
Author(s) Tanaka, Katsumasa
Guidry, Michael W.
Gruber, Nicolas
Journal or Series Title Aquatic geochemistry
Volume Number 19
Issue Number 5-6
Start Page 569
End Page 590
ISSN 1380-6165
Publisher Springer
Publication Place Berlin
Publication Date 2013-11
Keyword(s) Ecosystem modeling
Estuarine dynamics
Nitrogen cycle
Nutrient limitation
Climate change
Kaneohe Bay
Abstract The global coastal zone is characterized by high biological productivity and serves as an important channel through which materials are transferred from land to the open ocean, yet little is known how it will be affected by climate change. Here, we use Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii, a semi-enclosed subtropical embayment partially surrounded by a mountainous watershed and fed by river runoff as an example to explore the potential impact of climate change on the pelagic and benthic cycling of nitrogen. We employ a nine-compartment nitrogen cycle biogeochemical box model and perturb it with a set of four idealized climate scenarios. We find that hydrological changes play a dominant role in determining the ecosystem structure, while temperature changes are more important for the trophic state and stability of the ecosystem. The ecosystem stability against storm events does not significantly change under any scenario. The system remains autotrophic in the future; however, it becomes significantly less autotrophic under drier climate, while it turns slightly more autotrophic under wetter climate. These findings may have implications for other high island watershed and coastal ecosystems in the tropics and subtropics.
DOI 10.1007/s10498-013-9209-4
Additional Notes Received 28 February 2013, Accepted 13 September 2013, Published online 8 October 2013
Document Type Article
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
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NEBIS System Number 001444884
Source Database ID FORM-1390479121
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  author = "Tanaka, Katsumasa and Guidry, Michael W. and Gruber, Nicolas",
  title = "{E}cosystem {R}esponses of the {S}ubtropical {K}aneohe {B}ay, {H}awaii, to {C}limate {C}hange: {A} {N}itrogen {C}ycle {M}odeling {A}pproach",
  journal = "Aquatic geochemistry",
  year = 2013,
  volume = "19",
  number = "5-6",
  pages = "569--590",
  month = nov,

E-Citations record created: Thu, 23 Jan 2014, 12:12:05 CET