Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes

Metadata Label Value
Author(s) Fernandes, Jose A., Cheung, William W.L., Jennings, Simon, Butenschön, Momme, Mora, Lee de, Frölicher, Thomas L., Barange, Manuel, Grant, Alastair
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
Full Text Search SFX for a Full-Text version of this document
Import to Mendeley

Detailed Information

Metadata Field Content
Title Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes
Subtitle Accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model
Author(s) Fernandes, Jose A.
Cheung, William W.L.
Jennings, Simon
Butenschön, Momme
Mora, Lee de
Frölicher, Thomas L.
Barange, Manuel
Grant, Alastair
Journal or Series Title Global change biology
Volume Number 19
Issue Number 8
Start Page 2596
End Page 2607
ISSN 1354-1013
1365-2486
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell
Publication Place Oxford
Publication Date 2013-08
Keyword(s) Biological feedback
Climate change
Competition
Ecosystem approach
Fisheries management
Model validation
Modelling
Size spectrum
Species interactions
Abstract Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.
DOI 10.1111/gcb.12231
Additional Notes Article first published online 29 May 2013, Accepted manuscript online 26 April 2013, Manuscript accepted 14 April 2013, Manuscript revised 5 April 2013, Manuscript received 23 January 2013
Document Type Article
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
Organisational Unit(s)
NEBIS System Number 001626565
Source Database ID FORM-1384957080
Description File Name MIME Type Size
No details could be found
There are no links available for this record.
This record has not been viewed during this period

@article{Frnnds2013,
  author = "Fernandes, Jose A. and Cheung, William W.L. and Jennings, Simon and Butensch{\"{o}}n, Momme and Mora, Lee de and Fr{\"{o}}licher, Thomas L. and Barange, Manuel and Grant, Alastair",
  title = "{M}odelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: {A}ccounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model",
  journal = "Global change biology",
  year = 2013,
  volume = "19",
  number = "8",
  pages = "2596--2607",
  month = aug,
}


E-Citations record created: Wed, 20 Nov 2013, 14:18:04 CET