Modeling impacts of weather conditions in agent-based transport microsimulations
Open access
Date
2014-01Type
- Conference Paper
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Despite all mitigation efforts, climate change will impact transport systems. As the exact effects are still uncertain, a range of possible climate change outcomes has to be considered. For that purpose, it is important to have an instrument modeling a transport system and its behavior in different weather conditions. This paper shows that agent-based micro-simulations represent a promising approach for comprehensively modeling the impacts on transport systems. Moreover, based on evidence from previous literature, a new comprehensive classification of the various transport system aspects affected by climate change is proposed: Transport infrastructure, safety, travel behavior and socio-economic circumstances. Existing weather-sensitive models are restricted to impacts on transport infrastructure and driving behavior or include very simplistic activity-travel behavior models. Different approaches are sketched for the simulation of regular and unexpected weather conditions within the Multi-Agent Transport Simulation (MATSim). For regular weather conditions, it is proposed to search for tipping points where the performance of the transport system starts to significantly deteriorate due to the weather condition. For certain impacts categories, in particular for activity-travel behavior, the degree of impact and sometimes direction varies within the literature, calling for further analysis. Modeling unexpected weather conditions requires the application of the within-day replanning module within MATSim. The key challenge here is the definition of the appropriate replanning strategies when an unexpected event occurs. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000070384Publication status
publishedBook title
TRB 93rd Annual Meeting Compendium of PapersPages / Article No.
Publisher
Transportation Research BoardEvent
Subject
Climate change; Impacts; Microsimulation; Multi-agent systems; Weather conditionsOrganisational unit
03521 - Axhausen, Kay W. (emeritus) / Axhausen, Kay W. (emeritus)
02226 - NSL - Netzwerk Stadt und Landschaft / NSL - Network City and Landscape
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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