Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics

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Author(s) Joos, F., Roth, R., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Peters, G.P., Enting, I.G., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Burke, E. J., Eby, M., Edwards, N.R., Friedrich, T., Frölicher, T.L., Halloran, P.R., Holden, P.B., Jones, C., Kleinen, T., Mackenzie, F.T., Matsumoto, K., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.K., Reisinger, A., Segschneider, J., Shaffer, G., Steinacher, M., Strassmann, K., Tanaka, K., Timmermann, A., Weaver, A.J.
Publication Type Journal Items, Publication Status: Published
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Title Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics
Subtitle A multi-model analysis
Author(s) Joos, F.
Roth, R.
Fuglestvedt, J.S.
Peters, G.P.
Enting, I.G.
von Bloh, W.
Brovkin, V.
Burke, E. J.
Eby, M.
Edwards, N.R.
Friedrich, T.
Frölicher, T.L.
Halloran, P.R.
Holden, P.B.
Jones, C.
Kleinen, T.
Mackenzie, F.T.
Matsumoto, K.
Meinshausen, M.
Plattner, G.K.
Reisinger, A.
Segschneider, J.
Shaffer, G.
Steinacher, M.
Strassmann, K.
Tanaka, K.
Timmermann, A.
Weaver, A.J.
Journal or Series Title Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume Number 13
Issue Number 5
Start Page 2793
End Page 2825
ISSN 1680-7316
1680-7324
Publisher European Geophysical Society
Publication Place Katlenburg-Lindau
Publication Date 2013
Abstract The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycleclimate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 +/- 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 +/- 12% and the land the remainder (16 +/- 14 %). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 +/- 0.12 degrees C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5x10(-15) yr W m(-2) per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) x10(-15) yrWm(-2) per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.
DOI 10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013
Additional Notes Received 24 July 2012, Accepted 11 February 2013, Published 8 March 2013
Document Type Article
Publication Status Published
Language English
Assigned Organisational Unit(s) 03731
Organisational Unit(s)
NEBIS System Number 004294181
Source Database ID WOS-000316960500029
SCOPUS-84880706313
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@article{Js2013,
  author = "Joos, F. and Roth, R. and Fuglestvedt, J.S. and Peters, G.P. and Enting, I.G. and von Bloh, W. and Brovkin, V. and Burke, E. J. and Eby, M. and Edwards, N.R. and Friedrich, T. and Fr{\"{o}}licher, T.L. and Halloran, P.R. and Holden, P.B. and Jones, C. and Kleinen, T. and Mackenzie, F.T. and Matsumoto, K. and Meinshausen, M. and Plattner, G.K. and Reisinger, A. and Segschneider, J. and Shaffer, G. and Steinacher, M. and Strassmann, K. and Tanaka, K. and Timmermann, A. and Weaver, A.J.",
  title = "{C}arbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: {A} multi-model analysis",
  journal = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics",
  year = 2013,
  volume = "13",
  number = "5",
  pages = "2793--2825",
}


E-Citations record created: Mon, 13 May 2013, 07:11:44 CET